I can step into a Tesla today, press a destination, and go there without touching the wheel or pedals. Sure it won't be flawless but the fact is, I can. I can't do the same in any other consumer car, and the closest thing is a Waymo. The effort is there, I think its just a matter of time before we start seeing the legal stuff play out.

I think this is mostly not a legal issue. Let's take perhaps the most favorable conditions for driverless cars:

• A specific highway the manufacturer has checked
• Heavy traffic, under 40mph
• No rain or snow
• No work zones
• Daytime

Tesla could demonstrate their system worked sufficiently reliably in these conditions that the person in the driver's seat could safely work, read, or watch a movie, and Tesla could take full legal responsibility for any crash. We know Tesla could legally do this because (despite what the Secretary of Transportation thinks) Mercedes already does, with Drive Pilot, which they launched in Germany in 2022 and the US in 2023.

Then Tesla could gradually remove restrictions, as they were able to demonstrate that we could trust their system with more complex scenarios.

Tesla fans will often claim that Tesla could easily do this ("FSD is practically perfected, with no accidents whatsoever, under such conditions already"), but I don't think it's so clear. This is a situation where getting to "impressive" levels of operation is quite doable (ex: here's Cruise seven years ago on in SF, dealing with many unusual situations) but getting to "reliable enough that you don't have to supervise it" has been incredibly hard (ex: Cruise is shutting down, after dragging a pedestrian under a car last year). And unlike most of their competitors (including Mercedes) the Tesla vehicles don't have LIDAR, which makes it even harder to get to that level of reliability.

Tesla has been making bold promises here since at least 2016, when they claimed that Self-Driving was limited only by "extensive software validation and regulatory approval":

Full Self-Driving Capability

Build upon Enhanced Autopilot and order Full Self-Driving Capability on your Tesla. ... Please note that Self-Driving functionality is dependent upon extensive software validation and regulatory approval, which may vary widely by jurisdiction. It is not possible to know exactly when each element of the functionality described above will be available, as this is highly dependent on local regulatory approval. Please note also that using a self-driving Tesla for car sharing and ride hailing for friends and family is fine, but doing so for revenue purposes will only be permissible on the Tesla Network, details of which will be released next year.

(They were still saying the same thing, including "will be released next year", in 2019.)

I would be very happy to see Tesla succeed, and make a car that did not need a supervising driver, but if their hardware and software were up to the task they would have worked to get Level 3 certification already.